What are other people advising on location choice?
John Michael Greer - Ecosophia
From a comment on the Archdruid Report (discontinued):
- Keep calm, take your meds, and carry on;
- If possible move to a small town less than 50k people;
- 100 mi. (160 km) from coast;
- 400 mi. (650 km) from nuclear power plant;
- Make friends with neighbors, share;
- Buy quality hand tools, not gold.
Jacob Lund Fisker - Early Retirement Extreme
Jacob's estimate climate change +2C: 2060±20year, 10% chance 2040±10jaar
- above 55°N (or below 55°S)
- money <1%SWR
- scientific savvy
- flexible to handle problems in 1C, 2C and 3C world
- main worry:
- flooding due to extreme precipitation
- increased heat spells
- increased chance of tornadoes
- 10% chance of 3C and 4C in 2040±10
- best roof possible on a brick building with a basement
- better flood control
- no abusing A/C (risk of body temperature shock)
- not near risky coastlines (risk of flooding)
- 30 days of water and food stores (looking to increase) (risk of famine)
- not buy/rent land under 200ft (61m) of sea level
- no land/home in forest territory (risk of forest fires)
- no land w/o rich water (risk of dehydration)
- no lake/water views (risk of flooding)
- main problems are indirect
- food security
Side note: model of the atmosphere as explained by Jacob.
Irv Mills - The Easiest Person to Fool
So, you're looking for a place that is, and will continue to be:
- well above sea level
- not at the top of a bluff overlooking the sea that is being gradually eroded away
- not situated so as to take the full brunt of tropical storms
- not in the floodplain of a river
- not in a desert or semi-desert that relies on water from fossil aquifers that are being depleted faster than they are replenished or rivers fed by glacial melt water
- not subject to hot season temperatures or heat waves that are not survivable if the power goes out or you can't afford air conditioning
- receiving enough rain to allow for agriculture
- with a growing season and soil that will support agriculture
I'll be talking about coping with the challenge of finding and fitting into a community that can survive under these conditions. For now I'll just say don't assume that collapse will relieve you of the necessity of earning a living in the growth based capitalist economy. It's going to take a long time to switch over to a low energy, low consumption, non-growth economy and in the meantime, most of us will have to keep a foot in both worlds, and initially mainly in the currently existing world. So any plan for a move will have to take into account the necessity of earning a living where ever you go. You may well find that the pressure of earning a living pushes you in the opposite direction from what collapse related planning would indicate is best.
The good news is that there are many rural areas where:
- adequate energy can be had locally in the form of firewood which can be cut by hand
- potable water can be accessed from already existing wells that can be converted to hand or wind driven pumps and surface water that can be used with fairly simple filtration or treatment
- sufficient food for the local population can be grown on existing farmland within walking distance of town, without fossil fuel powered machinery
Now based on the need to get out of the city and find a location where adapting to post-industrial collapse conditions will be easier, we can add a few more criteria:
- far enough from the city to avoid the worst of what's going to happen there and so that the waves of refugees will be largely spent and small in number when they arrive at your location, and to be isolated from epidemics as well
- in a small town (a few hundred to a few thousand people) or on a farm near such a town
- where the surrounding agricultural area can support the local population using low tech, sustainable agricultural methods
- where there is still some standing timber, mainly for firewood, but also for all the many other things that can be done with wood
- where the ground water or surface water is potable or can be made that way with simple filtration
- where you have connections in the community, or where you can make those connections with some work hard
- where you can initially earn a living or set up to live off your savings / investments / pension
Sure, it will require some degree of advance preparation and a willingness to adapt our lifestyles, but it is all quite doable. This is not the case in the city, where local resources for self-sufficient living are simply not available.
When I speak of rural areas, let me make it clear that I am talking about small towns of a few hundred to a few thousand people, surrounded by farmland, not isolated farmsteads. It will take more than a single family or two to make this work. Indeed isolation is one of the most debilitating conditions that you can find yourself in as a human being.
This is more than just a matter of getting out of the cities before things get really miserable there. It's going to take some time to get set up where you are going and to become integrated into your new community. At the moment, people are still leaving small rural towns to find work in the city, but the day will come when that flow reverses. You want to be seen as a relatively old hand in your small town when that happens.
Your remote location should ensure you won't be overrun, (and) that a manageable number of refugees show up. Your aim should be to treat these folks as well as you treat yourselves and, without abusing them, to turn them into a resource rather than a burden. You will be switching over to a lifestyle where people are needed to replace automation, so that shouldn't be too hard.
Category 5 - Dark Green Mountain Reseach Centre
C5 addition to Irv Mills on integrating into a new community: [it takes] Multiple years if not decades.
C5 addition on rural areas: Many rural areas have already reached collapse. Its a buying opportunity. People want out. This is how we have a large farm, instead of a shack. More so, old, small farmers of Boomer age are giving up, retiring or dying without an heir willing to bankrupt themselves continuing farming. Industrial farming doesn't want the small farms. It is counter intuitive but move towards collapse. Just don't expect a traditional wage when you get there. Expect to be resented for a long period.
[In addition to Irv Mills work.] When considering the long term viability of a location, the new Rain Bombs and flash floods must be factored in. Not on a flood plane is the important one but there is more to that. You cannot be near anything that is a water flow area. A nice gully with a trickling creek becomes a water, mud and debris channel when a years amount of water shows up in 24 hours or all the snowpack melts in a week. You have to ask whether the ground you are on will stay in place or other ground is now heading toward you. You will want to ask if your road way will channel water towards you like an artificial river. You will need to know everything upstream from you like, is there an industrial feed lot, where a breach in a manure lagoon will send it into everyone's well water. [...], diseases associated with feed lots can include poop related infections, antibiotic resistant super strains of bacteria and even spread or mutate viruses, including jumping to humans.
My only critique of Irv's work would be to point out that much of the agricultural land around small farming towns is entirely based on central irrigation practices, Diesel heavy machinery reliance and imported heavy chemical fertilizer input as well as toxic pesticides. In most cases, the soil is already dead and simply a sponge for fertilizer. [...] Any interruption in these inputs will cease to make [nominal land] viable. More so, there are very few farmers left and the ones that are left are geared to industrial agriculture. They don't have the skills to switch back. Any attempt to would mean they couldn't pay their debts and would lose their land to banks as is happening now. Also keep in mind that a farm is not a magic supply of diverse food. In most cases, it is monoculture. Farmers get their food from the supermarket like everyone else. Rarely do they have their own truck gardens. They are too busy and in most cases they have already lost the skill set or it was lost with the previous generation.
Back to Location. If a person finds an area they want to move to, I recommend renting for at least a year in the area. That way, you are not locked in. It takes a while to find the problems of an area. Also to find the land deals in the area. Word of mouth can help. I have seen a lot of homesteaders bankrupt themselves or get into an area they decide they hate and are trapped. [...]
Plus, you need time to find out things like the quality of the water, what poisons were left by hidden industries of the past or what level of nepotism, crime or old family rivalries you may face. Rent for a while. Don't move in all your stuff. Put it in storage or sell it. Living in a moterhome is even a good idea if you can find a place to park it. Its good training anyhow. [...] Nothing will teach you more about living off grid in a world of failing infrastructure, than doing it for a year in an RV. You learn about poop, water, garbage disposal, heat, insulation, what you need and don't need, classism you will face and the insecurity of being landless. It is Adaptation University. You may find that you found the right area but the next town over is the better choice. You are talking about making it to the place your descendants will be stuck, once easy motoring comes to an end. Get on the task ASAP because it is a multi year task and time is running out.
An after thought on this. There are many failed towns that went downhill simply because a highway bypassed them. They may even have had past water transport routes before the heyday of road building. All of this is good because it will be cheaper to purchase and easier to secure in the future. Its easier to secure an off ramp than a thoroughfare. I am thinking Medievaly here as that may be our future. That is not a bad thing.
Source: Reddit Worldnews
Message from niktereuto posted on 2019-04-08 17:15:32 UTC edited for this purpose:
Cover your ass.
- Do not purchase property within 2-3 miles of the ocean, or below 25 feet above sea level.
- Do not purchase property where the humidity reaches 90+% in the summer (these areas may become uninhabitable due to the heat/humidity index in ~50 years).
- Do not purchase property that doesn't have a stable, long term source of water
- Expect food costs to begin rising significantly over the next decade, as it becomes too hot for wheat and soy in the areas where they are currently grown at, and as the areas where rice is grown begin to have less rain.
- Contrary to popular belief, you should expect some parts of the world to get much colder due to changes in ocean currents. The areas that get colder, however, will be significantly outweighed by the areas that get much, much hotter.
- Humidity will be up basically across the board, which means more rain overall in the world- but this additional rain will only occur in very specific areas. The majority of the planet will likely receive less rain.
- Ocean currents will become significantly warmer than they are now- which means hurricanes in areas that don't normally get any. San Diego, Los Angeles, New York City and Boston are particularly vulnerable to this in the US.
- Expect crime to go up over time due to wide spread impaired judgement caused by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This will be especially bad in cities where CO2 concentrations are the highest. I personally consider CO2 to be the next generations lead.
- Expect electricity prices to skyrocket over the next decade, as governments begin implementing well-meaning but too-late legislation to shut down polluting power sources without sufficient replacement, as hydroelectric sources begin having issues due to lack of water, and as wind farms begin having issues because of changes in the wind patterns, causing them to be pointed in the wrong direction.
- If you have the financial ability to do so, consider purchasing solar panels, electric batteries (For storage) and central A/C. You may laugh at that last one, but central A/C very well could save your life in 30 years time depending on where you live, due to extreme heat and humidity.
- If you have the financial ability to do so, consider purchasing an electric vehicle. Combined with solar panels and battery storage at home, you could save a significant amount of money in the future.
- Learn how to make basic repairs to your home, your property, your car, and your electronics by yourself. The ability to make repairs by yourself could be a valuable skill in a world where resources become more expensive and more restricted.
- If you don't already do so, learn how to cook at home by yourself. Not only does it save you a ton of money versus eating out, but it's healthier for you and your family and it's generally just a very good skill to know.
- Above all else, do not expect "technology" to come and magically fix global warming.
Think I'm exaggerating? Rich people don't seem to think so. The rich are taking the exact actions that I'm suggesting above- and you should do it too, while it is still financially feasible to the average person.
These rich people understand that Global Warming is no longer stoppable, and we can only slow it down with severe, worldwide changes to the way humanity as a whole currently operates- changes that will NOT occur, nor should you ever expect them to.
The time has come to adapt.
Tad W. Padzek
Source: Patzek's blog
Density of hunter/gatherer was at 1 human per 8 to 25 km².
The earth might support 2.5 billion people assuming an 1800’s equivalent life expectancy (32 years), lifestyle, slavery, and conflict.
Patzek shows current population overshoot is between 30x and 40x current densities.
- 19 population doublings have happened;
- 20 doublings may still happen;
- 21 doublings will definitely not happen.
Choosing a "least bad" place to live, in face of the "new normal":
- Avoiding extreme heat
- Avoiding extreme storms
- Avoiding catastrophic floods and sea level rise
Consider water sources
Mitigate against drought