Contemplation on oil, gas and coal

Posted on vr 05 mei 2023 in contemplation

  • oil is used
    • in powering machines for moving / transporting
      • raw materials
      • half finished products
      • finished products
      • people
    • in these environments
      • water - boat, submarine
      • land - car, shovel, tractor, truck
      • air - airplane, helicopter, drone
    • it is also used as a basis for
      • lubricants
      • solvents (in paint, as a cleaning agent)
    • characteristics
      • oil/diesel is the densest store of energy known to man
      • very easy to move using pipes
      • very easy to store using simple containers
      • easy to transport by ship
      • versatile to use
  • gas is used
    • for most heating needs (cooking, house warming)
    • as a basis for
      • plastics
      • poisons (all x-icides)
      • fertilizer (ureum)
    • to provide buffer capacity on the electric grid
      • quick to turn on and off depending on load
    • characteristics
      • usually a byproduct from oil pumping
      • easy to move using pipes
      • difficult to transport by ship
      • somewhat difficult to store (needs underground vaults)
      • lower energy density than oil
  • coal is used
    • as a basis for
      • electricity generation
    • characteristics
      • difficult to move
      • easy to store
      • needs diesel equipment to delve and transport
  • catabolic collapse
    • complexity needs surplus energy to sustain itself
    • when energy supply is insufficient, a (partial) collapse in complexity follows
    • hence, we can expect periods of stability followed by a step down
      • production of surplus energy forecasted to drop by 6%-9% per year from 2018 onward
        • at -6%/year, halving of available energy takes 12 years
          • 2018: 100%, 2030: 50%, 2042: 25%, 2054: 12.5%, 2066: 6.25%
        • at -9%/year, halving of available energy takes 8 years
          • 2018: 100%, 2026: 50%, 2034: 25%, 2042: 12.5%, 2050: 6.25%
      • ask yourself: "How much activity / wealth can be sustained in 2050 with, at best, only one eighth (12.5%) of current energy surplus available?"
  • my advice
    • Finding the Gift
    • be thankful for what you have
    • prepare for having (much) less energy available
    • apply: Start where you are / Use what you have / Do what you can - Arthur Ashe